AI Capability vs. Safety Timeline
Illustrative line chart, 2018 to 2030. Frontier capability index grows exponentially from 3 to 97.4; safety research index grows linearly from 6 to 44.4. The curves cross around 2026, after which the gap widens. Values after today are a simulated projection. Five generic capability milestones are marked on the curve, not tied to any real model or release date: 1) Narrow-task parity with skilled humans, around MAY 2021; 2) Reliable multi-step tool use, around JUL 2024; 3) Sustained multi-day autonomous tasks, around DEC 2026; 4) Outperforms domain experts, most cognitive tasks, around AUG 2028; 5) Safety research can't structurally keep pace, around SEP 2029.
Illustrative score, not a published benchmark.